Which candidate is most likely to win in Cuba?
A lot of voters are confused by how the island country voted in a presidential election this week, and there is still much to be determined about who will win, especially if Donald Trump prevails.
But if Trump wins the White House, his supporters say, it will mark a new era of democracy and the return of the Cold War to Cuba.
In the 1980s and 1990s, when the U.S. and its allies tried to rein in Castro’s dictatorship, the Cuban government tried to use the elections to promote itself.
In recent years, the island’s political class has tried to revive its image through the use of media and public affairs.
This year, the president of the National Assembly, Rafael Ramirez, has sought to boost Cuban popular support through television advertisements and a series of state-sponsored events, as well as a political party-sponsored radio station.
But as in previous elections, there is little consensus among Cubans over who will succeed Castro, the last of the six ruling leaders to survive the revolution.
The latest polls suggest the race is almost entirely tied between Castro and the former head of the Communist Party, Raúl Castro, who is running for re-election.
But the election could end up deciding the fate of the island as a democratic space, according to Luis Castillo, a political science professor at the University of Havana.
The two candidates have been competing over the same issues, and if the votes were tied, Castillo said, it would be a “clear victory for the president.”
Castillo said the candidates would likely seek to strengthen the rule of law and strengthen human rights.
But they would also seek to bring more economic resources to Cuba, which would increase tensions and make it more difficult to negotiate.
And while there have been protests against the elections, the government has largely dismissed them, he said.
“It’s really hard to see how this could be the beginning of any change,” Castillo told Al Jazeera.
In the meantime, Castello said, the political classes and other Cuban leaders will continue to try to convince Cubans that they can have democracy in Cuba.
“They need to convince people that they are human beings,” he said, “that they can live in freedom.”
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